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gear.gif (13429 bytes)POLITICAL COMMENT
The Ringside View

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usm-red.gif (844 bytes)Economist Column
Open Economy and Inflation.. synonimous, so the doc would say
usm-red.gif (836 bytes)Ringside View
It's other way round now, the states elections are having its impact on centre

 


--DeeGee

Never have the results of State elections decided the fate of Governments at the Centre in our country. It did happened in the past but the other way round. The change of guards at the Centre resulted into the change of State Governments, of course, not by duly held elections but by invoking extraordinary provisions of the Constitution of India. It so happened in 1977, again in 1980 and efforts were afoot in 1998, too.

But for the first time, the recently held four State Assemblies elections may create a history of sort. The die is cast but the results are still canned. By the time this piece will go 'On Line', clear picture may emerge. Yet, in the meantime, it has been widely admitted that final outcome may have an effect on the existing Central Government.

The reason is Exit Poll results telecast over Doordarshan projecting victories here and defeats there. It indicated a Congress sweep in Delhi and Congress victory in Rajasthan, possible Congress defeat in Mizoram while giving an advantage to the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. The Exit poll may be wrong and the indicated percentages of gain or loss may be different from the peoples’ verdict. Yet this has led even the Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to hint at the possibility of a mid-term poll all over country. The leaders of the Congress - the other main player in the arena, though keeping their fingers crossed, appears to be a little upbeat with the prospect of their coming back to power after a long hibernation.

Ironically, his colleagues in his own Party did not take the Prime Minister Vajpayee’s reaction kindly and also his alliance partners. With the passing of less than 24 hours after Mr. Vajpayee’s reaction having gone to the press, his party bosses have gone public saying that it was his loud thinking, not exactly the party's views. Leaders of the alliance partners have also reacted jerkingly to the hint given by the Prime Minister Vajpayee. They have thundered these were merely State Assembly elections and its results either way would not affect the future of the Central Government.

The posterity will alone give answer whether the outcome of these four State Assembly elections will have any effect on the future of the present Central Government. But the fact is, the possibility of a defeat of the major political party in the ruling alliance has sent shivers down the spine of those who are now enjoying and sharing the power at the Centre. Can a political group or party with nine or even less members in the Lok Sabha enjoying privy to power-that-be, agree to face the Electorate again in an uncertain political climate as now appears to be? Hence this divergent views in the BJP as well as its alliance partners.

True, we have a Parliamentary Democracy and the elections are held, transfer of power takes effect following the outcome of such elections. But the welfare of people is a far cry. While the ruling party and their loyalists have no problems in not only sustaining but also flourishing themselves, the mass of the population continues to lurch in miseries. It is not thus surprising that when people give a verdict not to their likings, they are not inclined to accept it hands down. Rather they take recourse to manipulative ways and means to keep themselves clinged to power like a limpet. The reaction in the ruling camp to the Exit Poll results is indicative of it.

Whether final tally will go closer to the Exit Poll results is still a million dollar question. But it is noticed that the government at the Centre has already started feeling tremors. Whatever its intensity may be, change of government at the Centre cannot be ruled out.





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